The fog of war is particularly thick as regards the air battle above Ukraine, but it is clear that the Russians have not achieved anything like Sead or Dead. Nonetheless, Challenger 3 is in the works. General Smith has subsequently confirmed to your correspondent that if he had been placed in charge at the Ministry of Defence, the current Challenger 2 main battle tank would not be replaced.

The British ground commander on that occasion, General Rupert Smith – the last man ever to command British armour in combat at division strength – later wrote that there had been no real clash of armoured force.Įven back in 1991, it was not tanks but airstrikes and missiles which settled matters. There were a few tank battles in 1991 (the Battle of 73 Easting in the Iraqi desert is still wistfully rehashed among tank lovers) but even in 1991, the Iraqi armour was mostly destroyed from above.

In Libya, and in the Iraq invasion of 2003, and to a large extent also during the 1991 Gulf War, Western dominance of the skies meant that the high-intensity ground war was over before it could really begin. The rulers of the air can destroy any ground target they can detect, which means that hostile armour and artillery on the ground beneath cannot survive for long. Once Sead/Dead has been carried out, the attackers effectively own the skies above say 10,000 feet or a little more: the maximum effective altitude of portable shoulder fired surface-to-air missiles. The actual strikes were made almost entirely by Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from naval units off the coast. It was carried out very effectively by US-led Nato forces against Colonel Gadaffi’s airpower in 2011. This kind of air campaign is known in military circles as Suppression (or Destruction) of Enemy Air Defences: Sead or Dead. Every time a Ukrainian missile battery targeted a Russian aircraft, it should have been located and knocked out. Every time a Ukrainian radar switched on, it should have been pinpointed and smashed. Ukrainian planes should have been destroyed on the ground. Opposing Ukrainian forces were hugely outmatched in armour, artillery and aircraft.Ĭonventional military wisdom says that several things ought to have happened in this situation.įirst, Russian air power should have been able to dominate the skies from early on. A huge Russian tank army, supported by apparently massive air power, has rolled across the borders intent on conquest.

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